Chinese Brands to Dominate 60% of Australian Market

What Is the 60% Chinese Brand Market Projection for Australia?

The projection is a forward-looking market analysis by Damian Meredith, the former head of Kia Australia, stating that Chinese automotive brands will capture 60% of all new vehicle sales in Australia by the end of this decade. This forecast was reported by WhichCar by Wheels on 22 September 2026. It is not a current sales figure but a strategic warning for established automakers.

**Malaysian automotive analysts and industry stakeholders monitor this shift because the Australian market often mirrors regional consumer preferences, including the growing acceptance of Chinese-made vehicles such as BYD, GWM, and Chery, which are also increasingly present in Malaysia.**

Key Facts

**No specific price points or Malaysian unit sales figures were provided in the original source material; the model is based on the total Australian market size of 1.2 million units.**

How Much of the Australian Market Will Chinese Brands Capture by 2030?

Chinese brands are expected to control 60% of the Australian new car market by the end of this decade, according to Damian Meredith. If the Australian annual market holds at 1.2 million vehicles, that equates to 720,000 units going to Chinese manufacturers, leaving 480,000 units for all other brands.

Meredith stated that incumbent carmakers have roughly three years to reorganise their business strategies to cope with what he calls the "rapid expansion" of Chinese brands. He explicitly noted that his projection is an "opinion" of the market direction and not a current sales achievement.

"Established carmakers must adapt their operations to significantly lower sales volumes, with sales potentially halving from current figures."

— Damian Meredith, former head of Kia Australia, via WhichCar by Wheels (22 September 2026)

**In this scenario, if the market splits as predicted, non-Chinese brands must base their future business plans on a maximum of 480,000 units annually, a figure which represents a significant reduction for market leaders like Toyota.**

What Are the Three Factors Changing Australia's Automotive Industry?

Meredith identified three specific factors driving change in Australia. These include the implementation of the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES), the increased presence of Chinese brands over the last five years, and the decline of the local automotive manufacturing sector.

The third factor, the decline of local manufacturing, raises concerns about the loss of "engineering expertise diversity" as production activities shrink. While these are Australian-specific issues, Malaysian readers may note parallels with the regional shift toward imported vehicles and the phasing out of local assembly operations.

**The New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) and the rapid growth of Chinese brands are cited as the two primary forces compressing the traditional market share, with the decline of local manufacturing compounding the pressure.**

Does This Mean Non-Chinese Automakers Will Exit the Australian Market?

No, the projection does not suggest that all non-Chinese manufacturers will exit the market. Meredith believes that opportunities remain for brands that can adapt their business scale to a smaller market size and accurately identify the sales share they can realistically win.

This approach requires manufacturers to reassess strategies based on current market conditions, including accepting that previous sales volumes may no longer be sustainable. The view was partially echoed by Fadi Mawal, President and CEO of Ford Australia, who stated the projection "might be correct" but declined to elaborate further during the Ford Uncovered event in Melbourne.

**A realistic recovery plan for these brands involves restructuring around the 480,000-unit residual market, prioritising profitability over previous volume targets, and accepting a permanently reduced footprint in Australia.**

Who Is This Market Analysis For in Malaysia?

This analysis is relevant for Malaysian industry observers, automotive distributors, and consumers interested in the long-term viability of traditional Japanese and European brands versus the rising influence of Chinese automotive technology. It reflects a regional trend where Chinese brands are expanding aggressively beyond their domestic borders.

Local comparisons can be drawn to the Malaysian automotive landscape, where Chinese brands like BYD and GWM are introducing competitive EVs and SUVs. However, the Malaysian market differs due to the presence of national carmakers (Proton and Perodua) and the Protect National Car policy, which does not have a direct equivalent in Australia.

**For Malaysian consumers, the Australian data does not directly predict local pricing but suggests that the competitive pressure from Chinese brands is likely to influence global supply chains and vehicle feature sets available in the ASEAN region.**

Common Questions

Why does Damian Meredith say competitors have three years to respond?

Meredith calculates that the projected 60% Chinese market share will be achieved by the end of the decade, roughly three years out. He uses this as the strategic window for existing brands to resize operations and adjust business plans before the market share shift is fully realised.

Are Toyota and other current leaders specifically at risk?

Yes, Meredith specifically mentions that market leaders, including Toyota, are at risk. His model indicates that if Chinese brands take 720,000 units of the 1.2 million market, all other automakers combined, including Toyota which is Australia's current top seller, must share the remaining 480,000 units.

What is the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) impact?

The NVES is listed as a primary factor altering the industry because it introduces new compliance costs and emission targets. According to the source, this regulation, combined with the rise of Chinese brands, forces legacy automakers to adapt faster. The full technical penalties are not detailed in the original article.

Sources and Methodology

This article is based on a single primary source: WhichCar by Wheels, report by Paul Gover, dated 22 September 2026, as republished by Careta. The information was translated from Malay to English (British spelling) for this guide.

No currency conversions were required as no specific monetary figures, prices, or costs were disclosed in the source material regarding vehicle pricing or NVES penalty fees. All market share figures (60%, 720,000 units, 480,000 units) appear verbatim in the source material and have not been aggregated or derived hypothetically.

This article was last updated on 24 September 2026. The Malaysian market comparison is an editorial addition for context and is explicitly marked as a projection, not a claim made by the source entities. No official Malaysian distributor or local warranty provider for the Chinese brands mentioned was cited in the original report.